PRLog (Press Release)– May 27, 2011– Nigeria is an unusually strong performer among the emerging markets, and based on a solid performance from the domestic agricultural and commerce sectors, and a recovery in the oil sector, BMI forecasts GDP growth in 2011 of 7.8% and an equally impressive 7.6% for 2012, following 2010's 7.9% estimated growth.
Nigeria will continue to enjoy a strong oil-supported trade surplus in the next five years and international firms have showed increasing interest in the Nigerian ports sector over the course of 2010, which is a trend that has continued in 2011.
Elections in the country cast a large shadow over events in Nigeria. Three polls that were pencilled in for successive weekends (parliamentary, presidential and state governorships) were set back a week following administrative chaos on April 2, when the polls were originally due to start. Jitters predictably filtered through the market but on the positive side, the delay hopefully marks something of a departure from flawed and violent elections that have taken place in the past.
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Headline Industry Data
* 2011 Port of Lagos tonnage throughput is forecast to increase by 6.29% following slightly higher projected growth of 6.71% in 2010. * 2011 Port of Tin Can Island tonnage throughput is forecast to rise by 10.84% following growth of 12.16% in 2010. * 2011 Port of Koko tonnage throughput is forecast to rise by 10.00% following slightly higher growth of 11.11% a year earlier. * 2011 Port Sapele tonnage throughput is forecast to increase by 9.07% following higher growth of 9.98% in 2010. * 2011 Port Harcourt tonnage throughput is forecast to increase by 8.80% on the back of 8.72% in 2010. * 2011 trade growth forecast at 7.26% following 6.5% growth in 2010.
Key Industry Trends
Fuel efficient ships set for West Africa: The first of a series of fuel effici auto part ent ships was named by Maersk in March 2011. The Maersk Conakry, named after the capital of Guinea and built by Hyundai Heavy Industries, is one of 22 Wafmax container vessels set to call at West African ports.
Sanctions await for CTN non-compliance: Failure to comply with the Cargo Tracking Note (CTN) will result in stiff penalties for shipping lines, according to the Nigerian Ports Authority (NPA). The CTN is designed to provide detailed information of imports and levies charges. The CTN's implementation has prompted some importers and freight forwarders to protest against the new charges.
Hapag-Lloyd, MOL and Zim tweak Europe-West Africa rotation: The Europe-West Africa service run by German carrier Hapag-Lloyd and Israel's Zim Line was altered on April 5 2011. Mitsui OSK Line (MOL) also rejigged its container services between Europe and West Africa in April 2011. aston martin 3;
Key Risks To Outlook
The main downside risk is a resurgence of the country's often intractable political conflicts. Many questions remain unanswered following the 2011 presidential elections. The three polls scheduled to take place on successive weekends (parliamentary, presidential and state governorships) were pushed back by a week following administrative chaos on April 2. This sent jitters through the market but it does at least signal that the authorities are trying to get things right and make a break from a past littered with flawed and violent elections.
The 'one to watch' was the presidential poll on April 16. Our core scenario was for President Goodluck Jonathan to eke out a victory, which he did. We expect the ruling People's Democratic Party to garner a smaller share of the vote than in previous contests but the opposition parties will not have sufficiently broad appeal to force a run-off, nor do we think they are sufficiently unified to win one even if a second round takes place.
That said, we have highlighted the upside risks to oil prices if the vote does indeed go to a run-off and the party loses. Under this scenario, Movement for the Emancipation of the Niger Delta (MEND) rebels may increase militant activity due to the diminishing likelihood of oil reforms being passed.
On the downside, BMI expects two major geopolitical events to continue to shape the liquid-bulk shipping sector over the coming quarters. Libya remains at war at the time of writing and other countries in the region are beginning to feel the effects of the Arab Spring. Additionally, the Japanese energy sect audi or is in a period of transition following the devastating earthquake and tsunami in March. Both events will influence tanker operators' bottom lines over the coming quarters.
The most significant influence on the liquid bulk shipping sector, however, will remain the issue of overcapacity, which we believe will continue as there is no spike in demand on the horizon.About 1086274749 Business Monitor International
Business Monitor International (BMI) offers a comprehensive range of products and services designed to help senior executives, analysts and researchers assess and better manage operating risks, and exploit business opportunities, across 175 markets. BMI offers three main areas of expertise: Country Risk BMI's country risk and macroeconomic forecast portfolio includes weekly financial market reports, monthly regional Monitors, and in-depth quarterly Business Forecast Reports. Industry Analysis BMI covers a total of 17 industry verticals through a portfolio of services, including in-depth quarterly Country Forecast Reports. View more research from Business Monitor International at http://www.fastmr. car news com/catalog/publishers.aspx?pubid=1010
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